Tomorrow is election day, and as a special favor for you, in this Year of Covid and Riots, I shall spare you my opinion on who is worthy of your vote. The choice is yours, and all on you boo.
I have been asked, several times today alone, who I think will win. My answer has remained the same: I don't know.
I'm not being flippant. I have won and lost enough elections (as a spectator) to know that almost any opinion offered in the final weeks is meaningless. It's too tainted by emotion and how invested you are in the outcome. One hour you're overestimating your candidate, convinced it'll be a landslide. A half hour later, you're just as certain the landslide will bury YOUR guy. It's pointless.
Plus, this year I just don't trust the polls. Not because tHe LaSt EleCTiOn pROvEd PolLs ArE BUnk, because I think 2016 was an outlier. But I have grown concerned when I read pollsters, from both sides of the aisle, now argue that their 2016 predictions weren't really that off. Say what now? You screwed the pooch. Badly. And if you and yours are unwilling to concede that point, how much could your methodology really have improved in the interim?
I also know people this year who casually spoke of lying about their choice of candidate when surveyed, and as a rule Republicans seem to scorn taking part in polls as a matter of honor. I myself have refused to participate a few times this go-round. So how accurate could the dang things be, no matter who they favor?
If pressed for a verdict, I think it's a 50-50 shot tomorrow for both candidates, but that the decision will be relatively quick and decisive, with the fears of a protracted post-ballot contest fading as 270 appears on the board. And if pressed further for a verdict, I think Trump has the momentum here at the end and a reliable shot at reaching that 270 mark again.
But wth do I know. I thought Hillary would win last time. Why listen to me?
Oh, wait. Listen to me about ONE thing. This:
No comments:
Post a Comment