The 2024 Election - What Happpened?

By late evening, I knew Trump would win. 

I had gone into the day thinking it would be a narrow contest; that is, after all, what the media endlessly told us, between coy asides hinting it may be a landslide for Harris. Still, I thought if Trump retook Georgia, and claimed Pennsylvania, that he would get to 270. That . . . didn't seem that hard of a task, which was worrisome. To be clear, I foresaw NO scenario where Trump also earned Wisconsin and Michigan. 

But by the time the first slew of data came in, I thought the tide was clearly and irrevocably Red. It felt very 2016, but I kept my mouth shut, dreading the reaction of my family. 

Well, obviously Trump won, and he did it in a convincing fashion. Kinda disproves the whole "2020 was stolen thing," unless the Democrats quietly went to Confession and changed their ways, eh? 

Yaya and Alex, who had come over to celebrate a Harris win, retired early. Smiley left a similar party at a friends house and asked me for a ride home. 

We watched Trumps victory speech, and while it wasn't mean spirited it sure was rambling. 

For those counting, I've lost 6 of the 9 Presidential Elections I've voted in (including this one), winning only in 2000, 2004, and 2016. 

 .333 may be a great average in baseball, but it sucks in politics.

So - what happened? 

There's a lot of finger pointing out there, most of it driven by emotion. I do NOT think it was because Harris is a woman. I'm 50 and I've heard guys say the most gawd-awful things, but not once in that half century have I heard a man say/imply they wouldn't vote for a woman because of her gender. I've heard a woman say that, but never a man. I think writing the loss off to misogyny is convenient while having the added bonus of being dead wrong. 

Nancy Pelosi is out there peddling the notion that a lack of an open primary and the quick coronation of Harris robbed the field of viable candidates. Mind you, they've already pulled sound bytes of her contradicting those thoughts only a few months ago, but she's sort of right. As I wrote in my pre-election piece, the lack of a primary contest wasn't a good thing. 

People are also  blaming Biden for not withdrawing earlier. F* that. The ultra rich donors and Hollywood elites forced a sitting President to step aside,  and he did so - for nothing. They got the worst-case result (for them) anyway. They should be sending Biden flowers and apology notes. 

Lifelong Democrats I know have told me that the Harris campaign, while proficient in execution, never really gave the electorate a sense of her identity. She was just "kind of there" as an "anti-Trump." 

I'm not sure I completely agree with them about "identity," but after 8 years it's pretty clear  "anti-Trump" isn't the winning strategy they needed. 

What's my take? 

I think that most of America was unhappy with the inflation of Biden's term AND the constant attempts to wave it away as irrelevant. "Inflation has slowed to only 3%!" Well, yes, but that's 3% on top of the immense inflation that preceded it. That was killing the paycheck of your average Joe, and even Jimmy Carter had the political sense, in his term, to acknowledge it sucked.  A sincere mea culpa might have gone far with the electorate, and you know what? Harris was well posed to distance herself from the fallout by being the one to issue that statement of empathy. 

I also think, and you'll roll your eyes, that the celebrity endorsements hurt. Very few people actually care who an actor chooses to vote for, but even those darling few care less for a millionaire's opinion during tough economic times.  Also, as the Sean Combs scandal continues to widen,  I don't know, maybe don't collect endorsements from players in the same industry, much less some of the folks closest to the sex slaver? The DNC trotted out his ex, J-Lo, really??

Lastly, and I think most importantly, I just don't think America trusts the media anymore. When you've got a national media hammering home the same old anti-Trump rhetoric for year #8, maybe it doesn't carry the same weight it should; and by default, neither does their praise for Harris. So the media - even if/when correct - was just ignored. Now you carry forward the knowledge that for the second time in 3 elections the media and their pollsters got it, not just wrong, but WAY WAY wrong, and the trust level falls all the more. 

Not gonna lie - I'll probably never trust a poll in a Presidential election again.

Anyway, there's my thoughts. Oh, one last one: I'm an American, and like I said I've lost plenty of elections. Life goes on. America goes on. As Biden said after Tuesday, you can't just love your country when you win. I sincerely hope the next four years are successful ones for our country. 

Election Day 2024

Twenty years ago this blog began, in large part, as a place for me to post my Republican beliefs. For those twenty years, as I did in the 12 years of adulthood prior,  I have consistently voted Red. 

This year, for the first - and hopefully last - time, I voted for a Democrat. 

When I went to vote early, back on October 22nd, I wasn't sure who was getting my vote. 

I think Trump was an effective President, whatever his personal faults. He easily earned my vote back in 2020. In the intevening four years however, the Jan 6th debacle, the politically motivated legal charges levied against him in NY and Georgia . . . they just broke him.

 Now that might have been the "goal" of his opponents, but not only did it start a dangerous precendent, it also kept Trump's name in the spotlight.  It reinforced the idea that he stood alone against the Media and the Left and all but ensured his name would be on the ballot again. A Pyrrhic victory at best.

But whatever the cause of the problem, I can't give my vote to a guy who no longer seems to be fully fuctioning. 

Believe me, I didn't WANT to vote for Kamala. There are a bevy of reasons.  I don't think prosecutors deserve my vote.  I remember her absymal intellectual performance against Biden in 2020. Her ads are a juvenille appeal to free money. She'll fix grocery prices and give 100 million people a tax break - just don't ask her how. 

Lastly, I'm not overlooking the fact that her campaign is feasting on the bones of a now forgotten Joe Biden, who - aside from his early gaffe in Afghanistan and his inabiltiy to check inflation - didn't do that bad of a job, all things considered. This was a planned end-around, intentionally delayed until after the primary season, and it still sits sour in my belly. It treads too closely to the phrase "legal coup" for my liking. 

Looking up and down the ballot here in Wisconsin, who else could get my vote? 

Not Jill Stein, perennial vote sucker of the Democratic ticket. 

Not RFK Jr, who reluctantly held my vote for much of the year, until he revealed himself to be a stooge for Trump. Naw, you lost me sir. 

The rest? Nobodies and never will be's. 

So Kamala it was. 

I felt ill submitting my ballot. 

But better to feel sick to my stomach, than sicken the country with a leader that is no longer in control of his anger and faculties 

Biden Is Out of the Race

A historic moment of course, the first sitting President to bow out of an election since 1968, and the first to do so so (perilously) close to voting day. 

I think it's a stupid move,  regardless of the election's outcome, for all the reasons I listed here. 

What will go unmentioned today is how this showcases the power of the media. It was the press who covered up and denied Biden's decline,  even though it was painfully apparent to the public. When it could no longer be ignored,  post debate, they doubled down on his weakness and pushed and pushed and pushed for him to be out of office. 

I truly,  truly think that absent a conscious media avalanche Biden continues to November.  

The media is not a Kingmaker. They should not enthrone someone, by act or omission.  But that's what they have done all year,  and now it's gone so far as to override the millions of voters in the primaries. 

It's a shame. 

My Thoughts on replacing Biden

If you ask me, and no one has, the Democratic Party would be foolish to replace Joe Biden at this point in the game. 

Yes, he's suffering from memory loss and is clearly, visibly, unfit to continue in office. But that didn't start when the media lifted its self-imposed blinders after the debate; the general public knew the emperor had no clothes for at least a year now. The time to get a healthier, more viable option was back when the primary season began. 

Now? With a convention coming up and the election what, 100 days away? Changing horses now just tells the voters you either didn't pay attention or didn't care when you should have, and leaves the public trying to evaluate and trust a new candidate at the 11th hour. 

Not to mention a contested  DNC convention in Chicago should spark some superstition. 

I do NOT buy into the argument that a Biden-Trump matchup is an automatic loss for Biden. That is media hysteria as rooted in fact as the "The President is fine" nonsense they parroted for the last year.  I think he's probably, regrettably, the best option to defeat a second Trump term. 

Remove Biden, and I think you seal a victory for Trump. If that's your goal, fine. If it isn't . . . live with your choice. 

What changed?

 Democrats in 2016: "Russia rigged the election!"

Democrats in 2020: "How DARE you question the validity of this election!!? The process is pure!"

Election Day is Tomorrow - FINALLY

 

Tomorrow is election day, and as a special favor for you, in this Year of Covid and Riots, I shall spare you my opinion on who is worthy of your vote. The choice is yours, and all on you boo. 

I have been asked, several times today alone, who I think will win. My answer has remained the same: I don't know.

 I'm not being flippant. I have won and lost enough elections (as a spectator) to know that almost any opinion offered in the final weeks is meaningless. It's too tainted by emotion and how invested you are in the outcome. One hour you're overestimating your candidate, convinced it'll be a landslide. A half hour later, you're just as certain the landslide will bury YOUR guy. It's pointless. 

Plus, this year I just don't trust the polls. Not because tHe LaSt EleCTiOn  pROvEd PolLs ArE BUnk, because I think 2016 was an outlier. But I have grown concerned when I read pollsters, from both sides of the aisle, now argue that their 2016 predictions weren't really that off.  Say what now? You screwed the pooch. Badly. And if you and yours are unwilling to concede that point, how much could your methodology really have improved in the interim? 

I also know people this year who casually spoke of lying about their choice of candidate when surveyed, and as a rule Republicans seem to scorn taking part in polls as a matter of honor. I myself have refused to participate a few times this go-round. So how accurate could the dang things be, no matter who they favor?

If pressed for a verdict, I think it's a 50-50 shot tomorrow for both candidates, but that the decision will be relatively quick and decisive, with the fears of a protracted post-ballot contest fading as 270 appears on the board. And if pressed further for a verdict, I think Trump has the momentum here at the end and a reliable shot at reaching that 270 mark again. 

But wth do I know. I thought Hillary would win last time.  Why listen to me? 

                                              Oh, wait. Listen to me about ONE thing. This:

A Clear Conflict of Interest

I was running an errand on the west side when I saw a very large campaign sign for Biden-Harris. No problem there, but then I saw the building it stood in front of: the office for the USPS letter carriers union.  I do not care which side of the aisle you stand on -  if you're even moderately concerned with having a fair election,  it MUST trouble you that the personnel charged with transporting and delivering millions of ballots are openly endorsing a candidate running in that very election. I don't discount the ethics of individual employees of USPS, but this is the same organization that warns you - their customer! - not to entrust cash within the mail their employees handle!

Has it?

LuLu claims my FB has turned mean spirited and partisan since the election.

Stop it Jill

How much is the DNC paying you Jill?

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Just to Be Clear

Just to address the recent spat of posts that claim ballots were hacked and a recount is needed: Homeland Security - *Obama's* DHS - says there is no evidence this occurred.

Election Night

The whole family is watching the election returns, and so far so good: only one kid has threatened to stab another.

So far a tight, tight race, with no landslide in sight (sorry NY Times). This room is tense, with emotions running high, but I'm actually relaxed and happy. Come what may it's over. I've been deeply invested in every election since '84 - I've won some, lost more - and if you've survived something before, it's ridiculous to be upset when facing it again. Tomorrow, no matter what, we're all Americans.

And by the way, regardless of the Presidential contest - congrats to Paul Ryan on his re-election!

My Ballot for the 2016 Presidential Election

This election isn’t the first to win my attention. This blog started as a response to the ’04 Presidential contest, and twenty years before that, having been raised in a household of Democrats, I remember my Grandmother comforting me after Mondale’s defeat. I’ve followed every contest since that (then) bitter Reagan win, and been fascinated with the workings of Presidential elections, from the time of the Founders until today. There’s not much that I thought could surprise me.

Oopsie.

This election has turned into a circus, a free for all between a blowhard celebrity and a ruthless member of the political machine. It’s a farce, a down and dirty tussle in the mud; there is no line that cannot be crossed, no allegation a step too far, no behind the scenes machination that is ruled unethical. Unquestionably the worst ballot in my lifetime, it is a mess, a travesty, and nothing short of a schoolyard brawl.

I love it.

Oh, don’t get me wrong. I believe everything I wrote in the last paragraph, and I think this is a near perfect example of what an election should NOT be. But, on principle, I enjoy the tussle of an election year: it is the one time when Americans discuss something more important than celebrity gossip and fad diets, when debates on the direction of our country take place in offices, homes, and online – even if discussions are shallow and revolve around memes and talking points.

You might hate to hear it, but the 2016 election is the American political experiment in action, and it is to be celebrated.

Alas, neither candidate is worth the hoopla.  

I dismissed Trump early, convinced that more experienced, thoughtful Republicans like Jeb Bush would carry the day. I misjudged the anger of the common man, and Trump barreled through the primaries. I thought he would moderate, if not his views, than his approach, once he had the nomination. Wrong again. I understand the gut appeal of a candidate that speaks his mind, that isn’t handcuffed by the rigid and empty scripts most politicians regurgitate. But a nice bit of Presidential decorum would have been nice to see.

And then Hillary. My word. She’s the unwelcome guest at dinner that just never leaves. For thirty years she’s been despised by the Right, barely tolerated by the Left, and repeatedly passed over by the center.  She’s on pace to become the first female American President, yet the resume of this “most experienced candidate ever” is an unimpressive carpetbagging stint in the Senate, a deeply flawed run as Secretary of State, and a marriage to a former President. She could barely knock out a 74 year old Socialist in the primaries (and then, only with a little help from the DNC), and has stumbled and bumbled her way into almost losing the general election to a much disliked television star.

My word, THIS is the best American female we had to offer? 

We really should be allowed a mulligan on this election.

So they’re both awful, awful candidates. But you have to vote for someone, and assuming you correctly believe voting 3^rd party is about as valuable as staying home and watching bread mold, whom do you choose?

(Disclaimer: Here in Wisconsin the state’s electoral votes will almost certainly go to Hillary, relieving me of any obligation to vote one way or the other. Alas, with a crucial Senate race at stake, I’ll be in the voting booth, but with a conscience free ability to vote 3^rd party if I desire)

I’ll give you another disclaimer at this point, and I won’t even hide it in parenthesis. There is one part of me, the part of me that is contrarian, the part of me that’s blunt by nature and appreciates it in kind, the part of me that recognizes the duplicity and ignorance of the media . . . well, that part of me would love to see a Trump victory just so I could collect and drink the tears of the Left. The very thought gives me shivers.

Alas, so does the prospect of a Trump win.

He wouldn’t be the worst President ever. You’ll never convince me that a man of his great and long lasting business success would somehow surpass Millard Filmore and Andrew Johnson on that score. I don’t care how many bad words he said, or how many millennials he triggered into running for their safe spaces, or how many people somehow equate protecting our border with racism. I don’t buy the propaganda, sorry.

But I think that Clinton would do a better job at managing the ship of state. I think she’d govern from the center, with occasional veers to the Left for show, ala her husband, and that overseas she’d continue in the vein of a closeted warhawk, just like Obama. I believe she’d do a decent job, with most of her egregious errors being unrecognizable in the short term, which is what a President needs to maintain a decent poll rating. No big snafus like invading Iraq only to come up empty on WMD’s – no, her mistakes will be subtler, like the Arab Spring she promoted. It led to ISIS, and Syria, and God knows what else, but at a comfortable enough distance that it’s rarely (but properly) laid at her feet except by the partisan opposition.

The problem is, she’s dishonest. Not dishonest in the vein of all politicians, or dishonest in a “I’ll lie in my campaign promises” way. She’s dishonest in a manner I’ve never come across in a politician, the consistent and pervasive lies of someone that’s skated on thin ice for decades but come out with nary a scratch, and assumes that streak will continue into the future. A crook properly caught and punished may change their ways; a crook that constantly avoids conviction is just emboldened. If she isn’t indicted for her perjury to Congress over her email snafu, then mark my words: at some point, probably just when the administration is going well, she’ll screw up anew, and the lies will catch up to her. We’ll watch another Clinton Presidency become bogged down in an impeachment, and unlike Bill (whose impeachment I thought was undue) she won’t come out a winner.

I don’t want to see the already much tarnished reputation of the Oval Office roughed up even more. I don’t want this nation, at a time of turmoil, when our traditional enemies are rising yet again, to be preoccupied with bulls**t and scandal.

I can’t, in good conscience, vote for her. I’ll acknowledge her as President if she wins.  I’ll root for her general success, as it is America’s success, when she’s in office. But I know what trouble awaits, and I can’t mortgage this nation voluntarily. I can’t.

You want an answer as to who to vote for? Who *I’m* voting for? Good luck, because the best I can give you is this: I won’t vote for Hillary.

To those who fret  and panic over this election; to those who label it “The Most Important Election of Our Lifetime,” (as opposed to the last “Most Important Election,” and the next), breathe easy.

This might be the least important election ever. The country is starkly but civilly divided, and whichever candidate takes office will face a determined and obstructionist foe in Congress. We’ll get bogged down by bureaucracy and the status quo. Critics will cite this as proof the system is broken, but critics are morons. The system is designed this way. It’s built to put a check on the President, to avoid a rubber stamp on Executive Power. It was designed to lumber along, and that’s what it will do.

The Republic will survive. Will it be the better for it after this fiasco? That’s not up to me. That’s up to the voters of the 2020 “Most Important Election Ever” to decide.

LOL, Of Course Not!

Of course not, that's silly. An election hasn't been rigged since Bernie Sanders ran, and that was a whole nine months ago. Stop living in the past

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