No chance: Little Women, The Irishman, Ford v Ferrari
Long shot: Parasite, Marriage Story, Joker
That's not the order *I'd* choose to put them in, just the way I think the Academy votes this year.
I believe, despite it being far from the best movie (nd in many ways merely average) that 1917 will take the prize. It's technically superb, which the professionals adore, it has the weighty subject matter the Academy loves, and it even has mild nods towards "diversity," with its inclusion of some colonial soldiers.
No one will remember it in five years, but there ya go.
Edit: For the record, I think, in a Dannyworld, that The Irishman should take it, but would not regret Marriage Story or JoJo Rabbit winning.